GDC2008 重要session集錦

https://www.cmpevents.com/GD08/A.asp?option=C&V=1&AdS=0&Kword=&SPids=0&DLnts=0&scTKs=0&scFMTs=0&scLVs=0&GetDaysC=0&scTKs1=0&scFMTs1=0&GetDaysC1=0&Ssp=&SB=4a
ALL Session

Voice of an Angel: Next-Gen Audio Processing and Effects for SINGSTAR on PS3
Using Wavelets on the Xbox360 for Current and Future Games
The CRYSIS of Audio
Starting with SPUs. Exploiting the Power of the Cell Sponsored by Sony
Procedural Data Generation in FAR CRY 2
One Man Army: The Characters of CRYSIS
Next-Gen Tile-Based GPUs
Lightmap Compression in HALO 3
Lighting and Material of HALO 3
Insomniac’s SPU Programming Practices
From DOOM to RAGE: Pushing Boundaries
FABLE 2 ?The Big Three Features Revealed
CRYSIS Next-Gen Effects
CRYSIS in the Making
Core Techniques and Algorithms in Shader Programming
Advanced Visual Effects with Direct3D
‘Do, Don’t Show’ ? Narrative Design in FARCRY 2
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NVIDIA:盡量把工作搬到GPU上

http://www.crhc.uiuc.edu/IMPACT/ftp/talks/toronto-11-29-2007.pdf
(page4)

UIUC is designing a 2,048 GPU cluster in 2009
Projected peak performance of 2 PFLOPS (SP) and 0.25 PFLOPS (DP)

所以UIUC在08年春天要做的128GPUs cluster、08~09年的2048GPU cluster用的是同一個GPU….也就是單顆1TFLOPS SP、128GFLOPS DP。
這應該就是所謂的GT200了….

加上財報裡面那個「”The CPU has become good enough for most users.”[Enthusiasm about low-end CPU + high-end GPU configurations]”」的策略,NVIDIA看來在推廣盡量把遊戲內的工作從CPU搬到GPU上,來增加GPU的附加價值。

先前才說到”一個小CPU + G80″不太能做事情,現在NVIDIA似乎要讓這樣的系統”很能做事情”….當然這也符合NVIDIA的利益就是了。(維持fabless、不參入desktop x86 CPU市場)

Intel 的對手還是只有”同樣做CPU的人” 因為工作永遠不可能完全從CPU搬走;但是只要CPU夠強,工作就會自己流進來。這是歷史。
所以Intel 並不擔心就是了….

現在GPU最大的財產,在繪圖範圍是ROP、在非繪圖範圍則是記憶體頻寬。因為他們不是和CPU一樣接DRAM module,CPU有容量的需求,GPU並沒有。所以他們用獨立PCB就是最主要的優勢….Larrabee不管做什麼形式,其實光追上這點應該就差很多。不過先前Larrabee的paper卻是用QPI和其他CPU一樣放在socket裡面,這樣的話我想要追上GPU的記憶體頻寬就非常困難。

テラ販促 XD

http://www.nicovideo.jp/thumb/sm2321776

【3DCG】くるっと・おどって・初音ミク【ねんどろいど】
真的全出了ねんどろいど就是神展開(w

(每次看到都會覺得Blender好猛….加上メタセコイア,實質上都是免費軟體做的_A_)

[EDIT]

http://kyokot.air-nifty.com/thank_thee/2008/02/3dcg_30e9.html
ニコニコ歴代1日マイリスト登録数を更新して1位になったようです。
2/14 06:01投稿というのに、2/15 0:30時点で達成の偉業。

歷代單日mylist登錄數最高。_A_
而且只花了18小時….

—–
Good Smile Company乾脆把這篇簽下去吧XD

話說前作:
http://www.nicovideo.jp/thumb/sm1449437

一言:士別三日,刮目相看;所以士別三月….進化杉ワロタXD

——-
補充:nicovideo用影片壓縮guide系列

http://www.nicovideo.jp/mylist/2962238
ひとつ上のうp主になる。
http://www29.atwiki.jp/nicolish/
nicolish!

統計360的RROD rate

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3166259
Report Claims Xbox 360 Failure Rates at 16%
Significantly lower than some estimates, but higher than Microsoft’s.

RROD占360損壞狀況的60%,不過MS以延長保固來解決。基本上RROD的損壞機率已經比預期的低了。
此外,這裡提到PS3的failure rate是3%,Wii則不明。

聽起來好像比預期的低沒錯,不過考慮一千七百萬台的360出貨,這樣的損壞率代表有兩百九十萬台左右的機器損壞,是正常消費電子產品三倍的損壞率…..

NVIDIA 2007Q4財報

http://www.nvidia.com/object/io_1202940080671.html
NVIDIA Reports Record Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2008

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?p=1128580#post1128580
Default NVIDIA’s Record Q407: ~$1.2B Revenue/~$300M Net Income

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2008/0214/nvidia.htm
NVIDIA、2008年度売上高は過去最高となる41億ドル

8800GT在2個月內出貨兩百萬顆(當初R300是半年出貨一百萬顆左右,G80是五個月出貨100萬個),雖然有些成本上的問題。
AGEIA購併完成,營業額創新紀錄。

內容錄音:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=116466&p=irol-audioArchives
http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/2/89332.html

全文:
http://www.aiplus.idv.tw/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=8366

CEO
– Another record quarter and record year.
– [Income Figures]
– [New Products/Initiatives]
– [CUDA as a first step towards Heterogenous Computing and also interesting for consumer workloads]
– [New Products/Initiatives including Hybrid SLI]
– [Growth percentages, MCP was the lowest at +7%]
– [Mental Images & Ageia acquisitions]
– Very satisfied with our strategic position heading into Fiscal 2009.

CFO
– Differences between GAAP and non-GAAP is stock compensation and Mental Images charges.
– Notebook and MCP were up slightly at 1 and 2% sequentially.
– Desktop was up 69% year-over-year.
– Consumer business [mostly handheld] declined.

– Some cost issues with the 8800 GT during the quarter which we hope to resolve in the next two quarters.
– The revenue for Mental Images during the quarter was less than one million dollars.
– Employees up 902 year-over-year, two thirds of that being R&D.
– Cash was down $43M quarter-over-quarter. $178M stock repurchase.
– Cash flow a little bit over $250M in the quarter.
– Capital expenditures were $70M in Q4.

Outlook
– We expect revenue in Q1 to be better than seasonal.
– We believe revenue will be slightly down.
– We will get back on track to improving gross margins, will be flat to slightly up.
– Operating expenses will increase 8-10% due to less vacation and $7M extra charges.
– Tax rate will be higher in 2009 since the R&D Tax Credit hasn’t been renewed.

CEO
[…]
“The CPU has become good enough for most users.”
[Enthusiasm about low-end CPU + high-end GPU configurations]
[…]


Q&A

Q: Marv, Q1 slightly stronger than seasonal – how do you perceive seasonal and that strength? Strength in desktop?
A: Seasonal is down 5% historically. PC in general is 5-10%. So I mean it’ll be down less than that.
Regarding desktop, performance GPUs are doing very well (8800GT).
Q: Notebook arena volatility? + Growth in the 20% range?
A: Notebook in Q4 was up 1%, it certainly didn’t decline. I would expect it to follow seasonality in Q1.
Regarding 2008, I don’t think I have any update compared to what I said earlier.
Focus on growth in desktop GPUs, growth in MCPs, growth in Workstation.

Q: April quarter, strength in the desktop GPU market. Do you see growth in the overall business?
A: It’s all over the segments, increasing adoption of the GPU. Bias towards slightly higher-end GPUs.
People understand that rebalancing the system to be more GPU-centric will result in muigher performance.
One PC OEM after another, they are increasing the budget allocating to the GPU.
Q: Competitive landscape in MCP? Notebook market? Dual-chip X2 from AMD?
A: We have the only Motherboard GeForce solution for both AMD and Intel.
Anybody who doesn’t want to sacrifice a rich graphic experience and not sacrifice compatibility,
we believe our GPUs on the motherboard are ideal. This is our first year for that on the Intel platform
and we’d expect that to do quite well. We’re enthusiastic about MCP.
[marketing about X2 vs 8800GTX] “We will shortly announced Tri-SLI”. [errr?]

Q: Cost issues regarding 8800 GT?
A: Yeah. Hmmm. 8800 GT was ramped probably faster than any other high-end GPU in our history.
In just 2 months of production, we shipped 2 millions of them. Yet the die size is larger than any other GPU.
We had some manufacturing challenges, but now yields should be much better going forward.
Marv: From my standpoint, it was about getting the product out. We focused on that even though cost was high.
Q: Ageia?
A: […] Our strategy is to port the physics engine on top of CUDA.
Our expectation is that this is going to encourage people to buy even better GPUs. […]

Q: Timeline for when we should start to see the impact in the actual product offering?
A: We’re working on porting the physics engine to CUDA right now.
Every CUDA-enabled GPU will be able to do it. […]

Q: Segment breakout? When could Ageia be accretive? 8800 GT costs? Need to port to 65nm?
A: […] Consumer was down 18% quarter-to-quarter. […]
“8800 GT costs is just about doing the process engineering […]”
Ageia doesn’t have high operating expenses […]

Q: CUDA? Requires a CPU business?
A: We believe in Heterogeneous Computing, the CPU is already there [from Intel/AMD], it’s fabulous […]
[GPU Computing marketing] [Physics marketing]
Q: DX10 Chipset. What are your expectations there?
A: In order to get Vista Certification by the second half of the year, you require DX10.
So I think the answer is we’ll get there as fast as possible.

Q: X2-type of products, will NVIDIA introduce products like that? Will that become the standard at the high-end?
A: We would do an X2-like product only if it delivered performance that’s possible only
But there’s no question a single GPU approach is better. But either way, it has to be the absolute highest performance.
If a X2 has the highest performance, it will be accepted. Otherwise, you’ll have big problems.
Q: In the near-term?
A: [huge laughter] We can’t talk about future products.
Q: Cash?
A: […] Intend to buy more stock back in Q1.

Q: Growth targets for the year still around 20%; did you discuss share gains etc.? AMD in the notebook area?
A: Maybe we’re just unsuccessful in communicating this, but the entire GPU market is booming.
We might be gaining share but it’s not significant. […] We’re just selling more GPUs and slightly higher-end.
Q: For all platforms? Desktop/Laptop/Workstation?
A: Absolutely.
Q: US vs International demand?
A: Not dramatically different demand in the different regions.
Our expectation is that the growth of GPUs will overcome the seasonalities.
Q: Pricing environment?
A: Pricing is good. More money spent on GPUs so that helps Average Selling Prices for the entire GPU business.

Q: ASPs?
A: Up nicely, since we shipped a lot of 8800 GTs.
Q: Operating expense growth in Q1; what about after Q1?
A: Working hard to keep it flat, but we’ll see how successful we are.

Q: Supply etc.?
A: We are the world’s fabless semiconductor company.
The products that we build are very complex and the die sizes of our largest GPUs are significantly bigger than CPUs.
So these processors consume a lot of wafers, it’s imporant we work very very closely with our partners.
TSMC has done a wonderful job for us, and my expectation is we’ll get the fabless model to new heights.
So we obviously take supply very seriously.
Q: Lead time?
A: It hasn’t really changed.

Q: Guidance for better than seasonal for Q1. Unique for NVIDIA?
A: I think the GPU market is just growing. It ought to help anybody who builds a GPU.
The way I see it is that visual computing is just becoming ever more important.
Q: Competitive landscape for the fiscal year. Unit share or revenue share perspective for main business lines?
A: Can’t break that down, sorry. [market is growing] [segmentation of the market and increase of ASPs]
Q: Gross margins. TSMC has talked about trying to renegociate pricing. Did this affect the margins?
A: Gross margin impact of 8800 GT was completely my fault. It has nothing to do with TSMC.
We’ll have to take all of that responsibility ourselves. But the good news is that since it’s entirely our fault,
we can fix it entirely ourselves. Can still expand margins.

Q: Competitive landscape in Notebooks. You vs AMD and IGPs in the next cycle?
A: In the notebook segment, AMD has wonderful offerings. Don’t forget they still have a terrific GPU design organization.
Between NVIDIA and ATI, or AMD now, it is the unambiguously the two best GPU design teams the world has ever seen.
I give them a lot of respect. And in the lower-end segment, we can’t differentiate against them. So we don’t expect
to win much of the business. In the upper-end, we can differentiate and we invest much more in R&D.
Q: Inventory increase?
A: New products in the pipeline.

Q: Overall PC environment opinion?
A: We’re fine. All we see is fine. We watch every single week around the world, and it looks good for us.
I don’t really know what else to say.
Q: OEM vs Whitebox difference?
A: Not really. I think it’s possible that the SKUs we are in are selling well and people are just prefering
platforms that we are designed into, but I don’t really know.
[visual computing & reallocation of resources within the PC]
I think it’s logical that should be a permanent thing.

開發慢慢地不是問題了,但是….

http://www.ps3-fan.net/2008/02/far_cry_2ps3.html
「Far Cry 2」開発者、当初はPS3での開発が心配だった…が、今は?

總之Far Cry 2的developer們算是看到SPU的價值所在,在挖掘硬體性能上算是把可能遇上的問題解決掉了。
直覺上大家都會擔心那個G7x + 128bit GDDR3,還有遠在I/O bus另一邊,傳統觀念上幫不太上忙的SPU;不過FlexIO畢竟證明和PCIe x16有點差距。

實話是,應該也只是「(在繪圖面)追上XBOX360」….(畢竟Far Cry 2本來有360版的打算)
不過即使如此,PS3在適當的市場(歐洲與日本)仍然有機會有相當的斬獲。

從刪除事件看fans群體的結構極限與內部崩壞

http://www.fumi2kick.com/rrtalk/archives/967
初音ミクとドーナツ (by 不在通知P)

先前死球P的刪除與修正問題,不在通知P針對「一般視聽者對Crypton進行通告」進行了一些討論。

簡單講就是說,由於編曲品質很高的關係,自然會有fans產生;也隨著會有所謂的信者與反彈者問題出現。
結果就是因為反彈的行為過大,造成Crypton必須要對視聽者產生的反彈作出回應,否則Crypton的人力那麼稀少(20人前後),實質上顯然是只能進行本業而已。

所以針對標準、許諾條款之類的東西進行討論其實意義不大,並不會有任何的正面行為產生。
真正的問題是:初音ミク一開始被視為CGM的代表性存在,而受到支持者稱為”新世代媒體”,把傳統媒體視為假想敵,來形成內部團結的力量;
但粉絲群體的擴大、需求多樣化的同時,彼此之間內部的摩擦也隨著產生,而使得群體結構在達到極限的同時本身產生內部崩壞。

也就是典型的社群結構極限問題,社群結構達到極限就會產生分裂,各自滿足自己的需求;
但是也因為nicovideo本身就是個競爭激烈的場合,所以分化之後的群體自然就不見得能承受排行榜激烈的競爭,而造成新曲在排行榜上被掩蓋的問題。

本來Crypton如果設法以mail(mixi、或者是はつねぎ等SNS)設法連絡死球P的話,可能最後頂多是「名譽的刪除勸告」之類可以一笑置之的事情;結果現在Crypton出來要求nico刪除,而被社群視為強制權利行使、而造成現在網路上輿論的爭議;至於到底是「被告知之後看了就刪除」,還是「超過默許的範疇」,畢竟這些曲目最早其實是2007/9/28開始的投稿,デP本人也有出席Vocaloid Night 2,應該是「早已知道、持續默許」比較可能。

所以說這就變成所謂的甜甜圈現象:核心的問題其實是社群內部矛盾,而不是公序良俗之類的技術性問題。
內部矛盾必然成為群體分裂,但是群體分裂同時也可能是群體成長(需求多樣化的機會),危機同時也是轉機。
現在新曲很難爬上nico排行榜,代表實質上目前危機還沒有變成轉機。

[EDIT]
> ハツネギをつくった僕に、
> 最後にハツネギのためにできることは、
> ハツネギを閉鎖することです。
> ハツネギは2月26日で、ちょうど開設から4ヶ月となります。
> それ以降こんなにも悲しくてたまらないハツネギはもう続いてほしくありません。
> ハツネギの名前で何かつくったり、イベントだとかしてほしくありません。
> ハツネギと名のつくものは、以降はこの世界に存在させたくありません。

SNSハツネギ2/26起閉鎖,マリアP的日記表明原因主要是社群內部爭執。
不過社群已經有4千人的規模之故,目前還在爭取轉圜的餘地….

—–
http://d.hatena.ne.jp/azuki-glg/20080125/1201220273
[初音]ヒット曲の栄光に立ちはだかる初音ミクという名のサイレン

這是另一個甜甜圈問題:外圍的觀賞者很多、但是沒有額外的動力回饋給內部的創作者,對nicovideo也是錯失商機、對Crypton也是有這個問題存在。
當然Crypton主要的目的是擴大參與DTM的群體,所以PIAPRO本身是有達到部分的目標;但是維持注話題性才能繼續創作的動力…

總之,只有管理不會產生創作,但是創作出來之後自然會需要所謂的管理,所以應該先把創作擺在前面還是管理擺在前面,自然一直都會有爭論….
因為社會績效主義盛行的關係,賺得錢多的就是贏家,所以被認為還沒有獲利機制出來,投資燒錢就變得是”浪費”?

所以績效主義才會扼殺創作啊。

http://www.fumi2kick.com/rrtalk/archives/896
管理主義は何も生み出さないという見方

—-
話說告知系統也好、comment同步捲軸也罷,其實對大多數人而言,目前的網路瀏覽機制還是不夠親切也說不定。

NVIDIA的APX2500

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2008/0212/nvidia.htm
NVIDIA、720p動画対応の
Windows Mobile向けプロセッサ「APX 2500」

http://www.watch.impress.co.jp/av/docs/20080212/nvidia.htm
NVIDIA、スマートフォン向けの720p再生対応プロセッサ
-Windows Mobile端末で「スマートフォン 2.0」

http://www.nvidia.com/object/apx_2500.html
官方製品情報

http://www.beyond3d.com/content/articles/101
B3D的分析

ARM11 core + HD AVP(720p H.264 decode) + ULP GeForce(注意,有CSAA support)….這對Windows Mobile廠商來說應該會是個相當有吸引力的東西。
讓Windows Mobile設備可以解720p的訊源,一方面是為了HDMI輸出,一方面是為了減少”掌上機專用訊源”的必需性。畢竟基本上轉檔還是一件麻煩事情….

支援CSAA的ULP GeForce….真的是G8x嗎?還是改ROP的G7x?或者是完全無關的東西?

[EDIT]
從B3D提供的資料來看,應該是GoForce5500的強化版。

—-
其實如果不是PC市場,光是CPU + GPU整合的話,去買個ARM-core應該就很充足了….
由於NVIDIA的主業是GPU,如果打算要讓GPU可以獨立動作(現在的Tesla需要Host PC),其實不見得一定要x86;而且現在根本沒有機會去搞個和Intel/AMD相比之下有競爭力的x86 core,成本也太高了(更別提沒有晶圓廠)。

反過來說,就算是Tesla,感覺上也不需要弄到可以獨立動作才行:
目前Tesla把Host PC的記憶體和GPU上的on-board memory當成階層記憶體結構來使用,一邊是高頻寬一邊是高容量,全部攬到GPU自己身上的話不見得會比較好。

日本3rd party的生存問題

欧州では2位視野に・PS3生き残りの課題(上)
有力タイトルがなぜ逃げ出したのか・PS3生き残りの課題(下)

這篇有個重點在於,新清士的意思並不是說”title逃出PS3″,而是”逃出日本境內的上位機(高級機、高性能機)市場”,原因當然是因為回收問題。

因為要做硬體功能較強機種的日系遊戲,就會遇上”如果PS3和360(在日本)的總和沒有個300萬台的話,那本身市場規模就太小”,而沒有投資的價值。
但是如果要全球化,又不太容易顧及所謂日系與歐美系雙方的style。
最後,如果放棄上位機市場,來追求日系遊戲的話,這回又得要和勢力成壓倒性態勢的任天堂分食大餅。
而對歐美廠商而言,不論是歐洲或是美洲都是相對日本來說較大的市場,實質上可以忽視日本的這些”特定客群”….畢竟在日本就算搞跨平台,實質上還比PS3在美國的市場還小。

不只是所謂常說的”日系RPG”,一般萌系、日系機器人動畫類的遊戲,也就是”只有日本周邊地區會有人氣的類型”,都在這個討論範圍內。
引用的例子則是「鋼彈無雙」。雖說開發已經一陣子了,但是應該只是當成備案而已;實際真的拿出來發售,只能讓人說”可能真的不出沒辦法回收成本”。
畢竟系列作大約是70~近百萬的程度,這回「鋼彈無雙」賣了約三十萬,成本基本上應該是無減反增,但是銷售量卻只有一半左右,委託開發的BANDAI不用說,受託的KOEI自己也大概看不下去。
另外一個例子是AC6:全世界合計43萬、日本國內10萬,基本上也算是系列最低銷量;雖然過去就有移植到PS3的謠言,不過自然是還沒有消息流出;CAPCOM的Lost Planet、Dead Rising基本上完全是歐美向,日本的銷量也是淒慘類的。

如果把攜帶機>定置機的現象再考慮進去,就會變成日後高性能走向實質上就等於歐美走向….的悲慘狀況。
單單DS的累計銷量(2110萬台)已經超過PS2的累計銷量(2105萬台),PSP也有735萬台。
這已經不是過去Wii推出的時候的悲觀思考,而是日本境內任天堂以外的遊戲廠商們已經迫在眉睫的危機了。

ゲーム業界、天国と地獄

「自分の長所と短所を理解して長所を活かす」

有說得這麼簡單就好了….XDa

組織一大,視點就會變得雜亂….SEGA靠卡片想扳回來的作法終於還是阻擋不了AC市場的沒落,體感在AC則已經退流行很久了,所以和Wii關係應該是不大的;家用部門則不論軟硬體都是陷入迷走的狀況
至於JYURIKO兄提到未來的狀況會如何不太清楚,這讓我想到某人提到「繪圖的進步、硬體的高價化讓遊戲只剩AC/網咖般的經營方式」的說法;不過我覺得在這之前GPU市場應該會先垮台才對。

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總之,日本現在給我的感覺:任天堂成為最大贏家的同時,整個日本遊戲市場發生大滅絕的可能性說不定都是存在的。