三國鼎立時期能持續多久?

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2008/0724/kaigai454.htm

利益を上げ始めたXbox 360が練る対Wii戦略

MS的遊戲部門開始有獲利是重點,雖然最近又投銀彈….

08E3結束之後2chゲハ版是充斥”終戰”說法,但是事實上三邊都有一定的成長比率的關係,看未來統計還是有可能出現一定時間的三國鼎立。

此外後藤老爹說”輿論說法”認為這一代因為OS的階層化與複雜化,有機會做到硬體的擴充而不更換本體、拉長硬體壽命周期。

當然機器本身是不是非更換(升級繪圖性能)又是另外一個問題了,畢竟GPU還在往前衝(DX11)….

—-

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2008/0724/nvidia.htm

東大の研究者が医療現場でのNVIDIA Tesla採用の実例を紹介

~「CPUのみでは実現不可能」だった医療向けGPGPUシステム

考慮房間與電力,比方說一個100TFLOPS的datacenter的話,NVIDIA宣稱Tesla對現有的大型系統來說可以讓cost壓縮到1/10,當然這是因為CPU在這方面效率比較不好,所以是討論已經有application的狀態下就是了。

目前來說,在專業市場目前能搞的規模有限,以應用來說還是應該會在Larrabee推出之後一下子GPGPU用途就翻盤;反過來說GPU本業的話NVIDIA和AMD的優勢還是很明顯,關於pipeline的那些know-how不論是實際產品面還是專利面都作用顯著。

—-

Big-bangII?

http://www.chw.net/foro/nvidia-lanzara-big-bang-ii-en-septiembre-t170487.html#post2166398

* Display Connectivity

* Quality Improvements

* Performance Improvements

* OpenGL 3.0

Big-bang是SLI,那Big-bang II到底是什麼東西哩?

離ミク發售一周年還有一個月

7/22的時候,日本寬頻推進協議會(BBA)召開了名為 「CGM新潮流。オンラインコミュニティの未来像」的座談會, 邀請到Crypton Future Media的佐佐木涉先生出席。 以下有三篇與該座談會相關的報導:

http://www.itmedia.co.jp/news/articles/0807/23/news046.html

「初音ミク」発売からもうすぐ1年 開発者が語る、これまでとこれから

http://www.itmedia.co.jp/news/articles/0807/24/news040.html

Perfumeはニコニコを知らなかった ”嫌儲”や著作権、ユーザー創作物の課題

http://internet.watch.impress.co.jp/cda/event/2008/07/23/20343.html

「初音ミク」生みの親らが語る、CGMのビジネス化や権利の課題

看了這三篇可以知道許多關於日本目前CGM風潮的過程、以及如何將創作的動力轉為收益的課題。

比方說初音ミク之前的Vocaloid產品銷售量頂多至三千份(如MEIKO),其他都是累計大約600~900份的銷售量;但是ミク目前為止已經超過四萬份,並且即使二到三月間熱潮開始退燒,每周仍有約三百份的銷量;鏡音リン・レン則累計約兩萬份。

由於ミク的熱潮,使得過去的產品如KAITO最近有得到重新評價的關係,在nico市場的銷量甚至超過鏡音;但是累計銷量不明。

只是從上述的說明來看,顯然仍沒有超過MEIKO….

上述ミク的銷量之中,實際有在利用Vocaloid進行音樂創作的人,應該是「同時購入リンレン」的人,也就是說「Vocaloid確實有幫助」,所以需要購入更多同類產品的狀況,大約是一萬至一萬五千人左右。

也就是說,即使沒有使用在音樂用途上的人,也因為結合角色市場的關係,而使得軟體本身擴展了相當比例銷量(非本身用途者可能超過50%)的狀況。

這其中有一個可能是「享受持有慾」,如在PC內安裝了Vocaloid,就好像在PC內實際地有ミク在,也就是說把軟體本身當成一種角色精品來看待。

原文:

「当初は全く予想していなかったが、インストールすることでパソコンの中に初音ミクというキャラクターがいると感じているユーザーもいる。この所有感も売り上げにつながっている」。

反過來說,當初Crypton害怕本身會被拿來當成色情工具來使用,比方說「找不到人來說色色的台詞所以拿Vocaloid來用」所以想以本身的宣傳來維護角色形象,結果Crypton實際上沒有做什麼,卻發現user本身自己以「はちゅねミク」之類的可愛形象、搞笑要素為主的作品,將色情要素排擠到使用的主要用途之外,所以user會選擇接受作品的形象,過於離開主軸的部分、不適合見光的部分會自動地加以淘汰。

當然這也與nico本身的內容管制有關….

而且這些需求自然就轉向到同人書刊上,但是這又與Vocaloid軟體本身的銷售量無關了。

PIAPRO目前的會員超過十萬人,計畫在2009年四月的時候開始引入非Vocaloid角色,可能會開放其他公司的授權角色、或者是其餘原創性角色,總之原則就是「user自身在PIAPRO上刊載的角色,必須可以自由地為其他user使用」這一個重點;另外,未來還會有與遊戲、網站與手機下載內容結合的企畫,只是除了PIAPRO官方與其餘公司間的協業之外,也會開始開放同人的製作企畫,比方說CD與畫集等等刊載。

原文:

「みんなの共通項というか、初めてこういう存在になることができた初音ミクをひとつの象徴として大事にしたいと考えている。そこから派生してくるキャラク─については、ユーザーさんが対価を得やすい仕組みを考えていきたい」とコメントした。

所以問題就在於商業化的手段。

與會的富士電視台福原伸治先生提到了他們在Perfume MV作品徵求上的經驗,他們在兩個月內便收集到了100個MV,由於素材由官方提供的關係,著作權處理就變得比較單純;只是CGM非常依靠user的幹勁,而大家都對錢味很敏感….所以只要企圖想要收益化,實際要做出DVD,user便可能不願意再繼續支持下去。

此外,很多人提到Perfume靠的是Youtube和nico才得以熱門,但是根據福原先生與Perfume的事務所交涉的經驗,她們本人在這之前「根本不曉得nico的存在」,也就是說在他們知道並且決定採行默許策略之前,在網路上已經熱門起來了。

原文:

 「積極的にネットを利用していたわけではなく、知らないうちに広まっていたということのようだ。非常に希有な例で、戦略でも何でもなく、すべての歯車がカチッと合った結果としてのブレイク。著作権的な問題にみんなが気が付く前に広まっていた新しいパターンだと思う。」(福原氏)

以目前的狀況來說,Vocaloid主要流行的曲目都是原創曲,這使得Vocaloid成為日本目前最為重要的CGM媒體,因為版權上的爭執會比較少,否則一開始cover曲為主的狀況,那的確是讓業界人士都會覺得,JASRAC要是跳出來問題就大了。(實際上也是靠nico概括承受的關係才得以解決)

你不太可能期待大家都能像Perfume那麼幸運….事實上因為有了先例,所以後面的人必然很難以相同路線竄起。只是上面也說了,如果PIAPRO想要企圖收益的話,很可能會讓user大舉離去,這會是個很困難的課題。

—-

http://ext.nicovideo.jp/thumb/sm4059882

http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm4059882

【初音ミク】恋スルラジオ第五回【復活!】

另一個ミク的ペーパークラフト是リアルノッポサンズ的作品。

http://blogs.yahoo.co.jp/realnopposans_ac/29086939.html

ワンダーフェスティバル2008冬

http://ga.sbcr.jp/mreport/009485/37.html

http://ga.sbcr.jp/mreport/009485/38.html

http://ga.sbcr.jp/mreport/009485/39.html

好想要….orz 不過早就絕版了XD

關於「杏あめ(匿名希望の東京都在住)」

http://ext.nicovideo.jp/thumb/nm4045023 http://ext.nicovideo.jp/thumb/nm4045080

http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/nm4045023

【初音ミク】オリジナル曲『Burst!』

http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/nm4045080

【初音ミク】オリジナル曲「Burst!」歌ってみた

http://anzutokumeikibou.blog96.fc2.com/

ApricotCandy

ユニット『匿名希望の東京都在住』の活動記録

因為其實是把ミク版當宣傳,所以自己唱的反而是full…. 🙂

而且因為effect、vocoder也用得很兇的關係,其實很像一般的商業專輯。

這次特別有Code Geass OP的風格,連封面也是請原畫(片腹痛士 =フロンティアチャイルド)跨刀。

http://www.nicovideo.jp/thumb_mylist/5485599

回去看mylist就會發現每次都是這樣設計….

算是很成功地利用到Vocaloid風潮爬起來,很值得其他人參考看看。

話說回來,這讓我想到4打ちミクさん….不過因為有歌可以唱的關係,至少這個ミク還是很幸福的。

虹色の花預約分完售T__T

本來想宣傳的不過看來免了orz

「ソノ歌声ハ、世界ヲ彩ル。」

局地的にお馴染みかもしれない「ゆうゆP」のアルバム、出ました。動画サイトに今まで投稿した曲に加え、新たに書き下ろした曲も収録。

ゲストにbaker・iroha・畳の3人を迎えて放つ、14の彩りを持つ花をご堪能下さい。この一枚があなたにとって特別な一枚になりますように――。

01: – Introduce –

02: 桜の季節

03: ミラーメモリー

04: クローバー・クラブ

05: kiコえて来rUヨ / experimental-001

06: スクラップが見た夢 / experimental-002

07: 渦と階段

08: 夕音

09: Inverted tomorrow (from CorpseParty)

10: 白の季節

11: 虹色の花

12: honey & clover club 【アレンジ:baker】

13: 白の季節 /c-hommage. 【アレンジ:iroha】

14: 桜の季節 -Another- 【アレンジ:畳】

——-

虎穴預訂份消滅T__T

因為確定會再販的關係,基本上是不太擔心就是了。

間違っても高い転売に手を出しちゃだめだよ!(ゆうゆ談)

Square-Enix轉為控股公司

http://www.inside-games.jp/news/287/28709.html

スクウェア・エニックス、持株会社体制に移行―名称はスクウェア・エニックス・ホールディングスを予定

Square-Enix的遊戲部門分公司化:

1.遊戲部門可以自己獨立做某種程度的判斷。

2.遊戲部門只需對母公司負責,母公司只給大方向的概念給他們發展。

3.製作人因為對負責人階層改變,所以權力有上拉。

反過來說,對母公司有持股比例、也不再會對獨立的遊戲部門子公司有很大的發言權,也就是說其實這次是讓遊戲公司脫離SCE的影響力,畢竟FF如果繼續固守在SCE的平台下,也是綁住自己的發展。

當然FF13本身是一定要給錢(違約金問題)才會跨,但是從上面的發展可以看到,其實即使是不做動作,Square-Enix本身也在試圖跨越長期被干涉的問題,走向更大的市場。所以現在這個體制下,不論任何公司大概都很難光靠金錢去影響他們的運作,那麼可以想見的是未來大概不太會出現特定的獨佔。

那麼,以目前的說法來說,既然公司本身的結構改變方向是這樣,我想”從甲方獨佔變成乙方獨佔”的狀況應該不會很多,”從獨佔變成跨平台”的狀況則會比較多,因為遊戲部門可以用自己的判斷和更獨立的市場調查來決定要出什麼遊戲在什麼平台上,對公司本身而言算是比較健全些。

上周的AMD財報

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2008/0718/amd.htm

AMD、デジタルTVと携帯機器向けビジネスから撤退

所以剩下PowerVR和NVIDIA了嗎。

統計一下AMD繪圖部門最近的表現:

07Q3,2.52B,虧損3M

07Q4,2.59B,虧損12M

08Q1,2.3B,虧損11M

08Q2,2.48B,虧損38M

RV670是算到07Q4開始賣的,所以其實TSMC 55nm用下去是真的蠻貴….NVIDIA到底是會輸了面子贏了裏子,還是通殺,目前還很難說。

不過AMD的路線目前來說還是沒有錯,問題是體力夠不夠玩下去….當然越困難的時候越要堅定,不然R600就是砍太多東西,才讓性能出不來的。

(主要是texture cache subsystem;不過同時cho的意見是RV770的scratchpad memory很可能是一開始R600就有的東西,這也算砍)

今天是realtime 3Dミク大會串

http://ext.nicovideo.jp/thumb/sm3998953

今日首位!

http://vocaloid.blog120.fc2.com/blog-entry-1534.html

「Skyline スクリプト」が物理エンジンを搭載しつつある件について

http://project_skyline.mysinablog.com/

その名はSkyline

http://ext.nicovideo.jp/thumb/sm3971206

http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm3971206

MMD杯【非公式告知動画】

http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm3945689

【MikuMikuDance】長門といっしょ

—–

相關:

http://www.itmedia.co.jp/news/articles/0807/18/news078.html

画面の中のメイドさん、棒でなでたり眺めたり 拡張現実「電脳フィギュア ARis」

http://www.geishatokyo.com/jp/ar-figure/

電脳フィギュア

——

http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm3923446

【MikuMikuDance】ミクが超いっぱいでてくる動画

ソラユニP~

(元ネタ全部わかる人はオワタXD)

這個動畫的重點是「過去一堆作品用了本篇所以準備退出,但是沒被刪除所以復歸」…._A_

所以是復歸動畫。

http://ext.nicovideo.jp/thumb/sm2689807

舉例:

http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm2689807

3D初音ミクで涼宮ハルヒの憂鬱OP

http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm2514337

3D初音ミク・アクション集

http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm3285264

【MMD】射手座☆午後九時 (照明と風のテスト)

—-

目前tintirorin的XSI講座正在招募中~

http://ext.nicovideo.jp/thumb_community/co3969

【ニコニコミュニティ】【VOCALOID】3DPV制作講座【XSI・After Effects】

youtube和nico都是燒錢啊

http://news.livedoor.com/article/detail/3735693/

【トレビアン】ニコニコ動画のアクセス激減!? その原因は……

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/nicovideo.jp

Traffic History Graph for nicovideo.jp

//
// USER-EDITABLE VARIABLES
// enter up to 3 domains, separated by a space
var sites = [‘nicovideo.jp’];
var opts = {
width: 380, // width in pixels (max 400)
height: 300, // height in pixels (max 300)
type: ‘r’, // “r” Reach, “n” Rank, “p” Page Views
range: ‘6m’, // “7d”, “1m”, “3m”, “6m”, “1y”, “3y”, “5y”, “max”
bgcolor: ‘e6f3fc’ // hex value without “#” char (usually “e6f3fc”)
};
// END USER-EDITABLE VARIABLES
AGraphManager.add( new AGraph(sites, opts) );
//

well,事實上アニメ之後少去的人應該是最大多數,ミク對nico來說算是殺手級的content,主要是因為合法。 但是要衝出user的大數的話,違法content的確是最有效的….當然這些人也是light user,呼之即來揮之即去。 擴大頻寬之前不是premium的話要連上都很困難,所以為了違法anime本篇他們可以花很多精神。 說回到youtube,但是其實youtube也是不知道燒錢燒到什麼時候會停止….。

順道,Piapro的流量是:

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/piapro.jp

/*
*/

// USER-EDITABLE VARIABLES
// enter up to 3 domains, separated by a space
var sites = [‘piapro.jp’];
var opts = {
width: 380, // width in pixels (max 400)
height: 300, // height in pixels (max 300)
type: ‘r’, // “r” Reach, “n” Rank, “p” Page Views
range: ‘6m’, // “7d”, “1m”, “3m”, “6m”, “1y”, “3y”, “5y”, “max”
bgcolor: ‘e6f3fc’ // hex value without “#” char (usually “e6f3fc”)
};
// END USER-EDITABLE VARIABLES
AGraphManager.add( new AGraph(sites, opts) );

//

—–

http://www.itmedia.co.jp/news/articles/0807/17/news052.html

EU、録音物の著作権保護を50年から95年に延長

還有人可以阻止M$嗎?XD

歹戲拖棚: Yahoo! 願意以每股 33 元( USD per share )通通上嫁給 Microsoft

但是拖到現在就贏啦。

全文:

Dear Fellow Stockholder:

The recently-formed Carl Icahn-Microsoft alliance continues to make misleading statements about their plans for Yahoo!. Your Board of Directors believes strongly that the Icahn-Microsoft agenda -as presented to us jointly last week – will destroy stockholder value at Yahoo!, serving only their very narrow special interests, clearly not your interests.

Your Board continues to work to maximize value for you and is taking the following steps to do so:

– Moving forward with our strategic plan and strategies to lead in online advertising – with both search and display;

– Preparing to implement our recently signed commercial agreement with Google that will increase cash flow;

– Continuing to explore other ways to unlock value and return value to you such as unlocking the value of our Asia assets; and

– Remaining open to negotiating a value creating transaction (including with Microsoft) that provides real and certain value – not just the possibility of value.

In contrast, let’s review Carl Icahn’s brief involvement with the Company to date.

Carl Icahn bought his stock two months ago for an estimated average cost of less than $25 per share. He is well-known as a corporate agitator with a short-term approach to his investments. His short-term approach gives Mr. Icahn a strong incentive to strike any deal with Microsoft that enables him to recover his investment and get back his money quickly, even a deal that does not provide full and fair value to you. Is that in the interests of all stockholders? Clearly, it is not.

Mr. Icahn has severely handicapped himself in his ability to negotiate a favorable transaction with Microsoft. Why?

– Mr. Icahn has made it clear that his only objective is to sell part or all of Yahoo! to Microsoft. That fact, combined with his lack of an operating plan going forward, means that he will have no leverage to negotiate a fair deal with Microsoft. He has set himself up for failure.

– Second, Mr. Icahn and his slate lack the working knowledge of Yahoo! and its Internet business needed to do two things that are required to successfully deliver a value-enhancing transaction for Yahoo! stockholders. First, they do not have the detailed knowledge to negotiate a complex restructuring of a large, innovative high technology company in a rapidly changing environment. Second, they do not have the hands-on experience to manage and lead Yahoo! during the approximately one year period estimated to be required to gain regulatory approval for a deal or to manage and lead the remainder of the Company (non-search) after a transaction is completed. Don’t take our word for that. Mr. Icahn will be calling the shots if his slate wins and yet Mr. Icahn himself told the Wall Street Journal last fall: “Technology hasn’t really been one of the things I’ve focused on too much before” and “It’s hard to understand these technology companies.” That’s why you need a knowledgeable, experienced and independent board to represent your interests vis-a-vis Microsoft.

Mr. Icahn can’t make up his mind about what he thinks will work for Yahoo!. He bought his position believing that he could bring Microsoft back to buy all of Yahoo!, at one point suggesting we publicly offer to sell Yahoo! to Microsoft for $34.375. But he didn’t do enough due diligence to determine what your Board already knew: that it was Microsoft’s decision to walk away and that it had rebuffed repeated efforts by your independent directors to get a whole company acquisition back on the table. Recognizing that a sale to Microsoft might not be an option, Mr. Icahn said as an alternative that we should enter into an agreement with Google (which we were already negotiating and subsequently signed), and that we should walk away from Microsoft’s search-only proposal (which we did after careful evaluation of that proposal). Then, in an extraordinary flip flop, Mr. Icahn teamed up with Microsoft and embraced their latest joint search-only proposal-even though it involved significant execution and operational risks and was fraught with flaws that made the “headline value” asserted by Microsoft and Mr. Icahn more illusion than reality.

How can Yahoo! stockholders trust Mr. Icahn to deliver what he claims he can deliver when his actions have been so contradictory -and when all he has delivered so far is a risky proposal of questionable value from his new friends at Microsoft? Yes, the Microsoft/Icahn proposal is somewhat of an improvement over Microsoft’s last search-only proposal, but no one should confuse a modestly improved offer with a good offer. The Icahn/Microsoft proposal was more “smoke and mirrors” than objective reality.

Now let’s turn to the recent marriage of convenience between Microsoft and Mr. Icahn.

This “odd couple” collaboration – between two parties with keenly different agendas – is indeed perplexing. Why does Mr. Icahn believe he can count on Microsoft to complete a transaction? Certainly Microsoft is a well-respected and successful company and we have been clear that we are fully prepared to do a deal with them. But Microsoft’s flip flops and inconsistencies over the past five months are so stupefying that one can only conclude that Microsoft was never fully committed to acquiring Yahoo! either because:

– Microsoft can’t decide what is and isn’t strategically important to its online business; or

– Microsoft is more interested in destabilizing a key competitor so that it can either enhance its competitive position or buy our highly valuable search business-and the enormously desirable intellectual property associated with it -at a bargain basement price.

Microsoft desperately needs to improve the performance of its online services business (consisting of its search and display assets) which, cumulatively since 2003, has lost money despite billions of dollars of investment. And yet Mr. Icahn would ignore this track record and its implications for his fellow Yahoo! stockholders, swallowing a deal that leaves Yahoo!’s future dependent, in part, on Microsoft’s ability to monetize search. And, as Mr. Icahn has himself pointed out, it would eliminate any opportunity we may have to sell the entire Company for an attractive premium.

In contrast to the conflicting and confusing statements emanating from the Icahn-Microsoft alliance, your Board and management have been crystal clear about our position.

First, we will sell the entire Company to Microsoft for $33 per share or more if Microsoft will negotiate a transaction that delivers certainty of value and certainty of closing. This is the simplest, most straightforward way to maximize value for you.

Second, we remain open to selling only search to Microsoft as long as it provides real value to our stockholders and resolves the substantial execution and operational risks associated with the separation of our search and display businesses.

Third, your Board takes seriously its obligation to examine all value-creating steps it could take and continues to actively examine many of these now, including a potential spin-off of our Asia assets and a return of cash to stockholders. These are steps Yahoo! could take, if we determine they are feasible and in our stockholders’ best interests, without any “help” from Microsoft or Mr. Icahn. But they are complex steps that require care and prudence. These should not be adopted simply because Mr. Icahn and Microsoft are trying to dress up Microsoft’s inadequate search-only proposal.

While your Board continues to evaluate the foregoing avenues, your current Board and management continue to execute on our strategy to grow the value of our unique collection of assets. That strategy is working and we believe it can result in substantial double digit growth in operating cash flow as we move forward. Our recently executed search advertising agreement with Google reflects our commitment to achieving our strategic goals, while preserving flexibility to pursue a sale of the Company or even, on the right terms, a sale of our search business.

Please compare and contrast the straightforward, responsible actions and positions of your Board of Directors with the behavior of Mr. Icahn and Microsoft.

There you have the situation, as we see it, put as simply and clearly as we can. We believe the Icahn slate and agenda present significant risk to your investment in Yahoo!. We believe you cannot count on Microsoft to bail out Mr. Icahn’s misguided agenda, at least not on terms that are in the best interests of Yahoo! stockholders.

In contrast, your Board remains fully prepared to represent your interests aggressively and conscientiously in the effort to maximize value-whether that takes the form of negotiating a transaction that provides full and fair value, with certainty; finding other ways to unlock and return value to you; or moving forward with our accelerated strategies to lead in online advertising.

Your Board of Directors remains committed to maximizing stockholder value. It is-and will remain-our number one priority. Do not be fooled into thinking otherwise by Carl Icahn.

We strongly urge you to vote your WHITE Proxy Card today for your current Board of Directors.

Thank you for your support.

Roy Bostock Jerry Yang

Chairman of the Board Chief Executive Officer